Year 2008 to 2010: As a Student Profile: Trading Analyst
Year 2010 to present: Job Profile: Rating Analyst
Year 2015 to forever: Value Investor
This isn't a journey from being a Trading Analyst to a Rating Analyst, rather a convoluted one
of a trading analyst transforming into a combo of a rating analyst and a value investor. The year 2010
showcased me my latent curiosity towards stock markets, the time when I was
otherwise booked by post-grad books. I
ventured into the arena of lure for stocks, lust for bull market and love of
the money earned through trading. Money though was never the ultimate factor
for my trading quest; it was rather an urge to know more about varied
companies, to talk more about different managements at helm and to discuss the
successes & failures with friends.
The fallacies
The trading strategy during the college
days was engineered with a flawed design of three Fs; the search for only the fashionable
stocks, the ‘follow the crowd’ approach, and the fear of not wanting to lose
even a penny. This only resulted in a fourth fallacy of nature, ‘F***, I’m screwed!!!’
The widely traded blue chip
stocks aka fashionable stocks did not eliminate the chance to make profits, but
clearly this strategy ensured all likelihood to not discover diamonds buried
deep inside a colliery yet to be unearthed. The second most important factor
was the approach to follow the crowd. In a perfect market hypothesis, with
innumerable investors following the fashion stocks, where it was impossible at
one end to extract a better price appreciation from the stock, this approach on
the other end also guaranteed gambling your money on advise of people who doesn't matter!!! The third fallacy was the fear of fear to lose money. This fear ensured
no development of risk appetite for me as an investor.
The Trading Monk
What started the stock market
expedition for me was the search for a path to trade on opportunities, to make as much
as possible, and to live without fear in a constant wave of nervousness. Alas, only to realise the path is well crowded and nobody is sure where it leads to: hell or heaven for a monk!!!
The journey in 2010 took this
monk on a path though defined by others, but less travelled, a path where the
chances of success & failure were equal yet people failed, and a path where
patience is the fuel to reach the goal.
Landing a job as a rating analyst
helped me learn the concepts to analyze companies, the management, the
financials, valuations, and the credibility of projections. This further helped
me to start looking for the Companies
not known to people, yet are popular among other monks, the Companies which
made the old monks drunk (pun intended), and the Companies which made the great
‘Oracles of Omaha’!!!
From a Trading Monk to The Valuing Monk
Value investment is all about
finding the strong companies with a long term view that are trading well below
their intrinsic value. And it is actually not as easy as it may sound. Though
an amateur in this field of investment, but with an experience of almost five
years in the fight against losses, I would start analyzing companies I believe
in and share here through my blog. Hope this monk is able to let other souls be
freed from the shackles of loss and proceed to a path of glory.
Disclaimer:
The great Morpheus from the movie
Matrix tells Neo: “I'm trying to free
your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You're the one that has to
walk through it.” Learn from the mistakes of others, not always you need to
commit one to learn. So, do make informed decisions and never ever get inspired
by what others have to say, just believe in self, that’s the best advise you’ll
get from your soul who knows you the most/best and wants you to be free (and not high). And this
investment approach is only worth every penny if a stock or a script is viewed
as a manifestation of the company. Or rather I may say, stock is a derivative like
instrument having base as the Company itself. Plainly buying a stock is
different from buying a stock in form of piece of a business you believe in,
the management you trust and the product you endorse.
See you guys soon, take care and happy investing!!!
In Ramayana, where
Lord Ram had to fight Ravan for Sita, the battle was not an individual but an
historic example of team work. The team included the manifestations of God in
various forms including Hanuman, Vibhishan, Jamvan, Sugriv, Jatayu (pre-war event)
etc. in addition to Lakshman, Ram’s younger brother. While Hanuman, a vanara,
was the greatest bhakt (devotee) of Ram, his prowess was greater and played a
great role in locating Mata Sita and assisted Lord Ram in bringing Lakshman
back to file after being hit by Indrajit’s bows.Sugriv, the vanara head,
assembled the army required by Ram to fight Ravan. Vibhishan, the younger
brother of Ravan, the one with the knowledge of Lanka, was well aware of the
powers of demons and guided Ram on how to kill Ravan. While Jatayu was a
demi-God bird who sacrificed his life in saving the abduction of Mata Sita;
Jamvan, was a ferocious human bear with strength to beat Ravan alone in a
battle. Thus, Lord Ram was armored with the manifestations of God in various
forms. Hanuman, was the incarnation of Shiva, and Shiva, the destroyer had blessed
Ravan with navel exception immortality after rigorous tapasya. Hanuman, alone
had all the powers and strength to beat and kill Ravan, but his role was
defined in form of a devotee, explorer, saviour, follower and skilled vanara.
At the time when
Lakshman was severely wounded by Indrajit’s sorcerous blows, Hanuman was asked
to bring in Sanjivni herb from Himalayas. Hanuman, the flying vanara reached
mountains in no time but not knowing the right herb amongst boundless
plantations brought in the entire mountain. Sushena, the medic, uprooted the
right herb and brought Lakshman back to life.
Hanuman was all in
one, but it was the leader, Ram, who had to sail the army through the dungeons
of Lanka to free Mata Sita with the support of Vanara’s like Hanuman.
In Corporate World, a battle is fought everyday and similar situations arise, where individuals play different roles like that of Lord Ram, Hanuman etc. Kesri, an IIT and IIM
graduate, was a child prodigy and keen to join Investment Banking. After having
recruited with the top IB firm, in a six months’ time contributed to the
turnover of the Bank. Though it was his first job, but on account of work and
profile, he was paid handsomely. He handled complex investment decisions single
handedly and one day was tasked with a securitization deal never undertaken
before. The deal required expertise from multiple verticals and business
segments to which Kesri was not equipped. His boss, Ramakanth, was under
pressure to close the deal on account of dearth in time while even a clear
structure was not in vicinity. Ramakanth, having Investment Banking experience
of more than three decades and the agility of a leader, was quick to guide the
possible structures with expertise of relevant segments mentioned to Kesri.
This helped Kesri, to undertake an extensive research and present all the
possible structuring options for review of the management for effective
decision making. Ramakanthwas quick to pick the right structure and make
amendments accordingly to close the deal. Thus Ramakanth, worked like a true
leader (Lord Ram) and Kesri worked as a devout soldier (Lord Hanuman) to win
the battle(s) and hence wars.
It’s the same way of
Hanu-management that is important for organizations to realize the potential of
hardworking employees working at the Bottom of the Pyramid. The
employees are an asset and when made a part of Management’s vision can provide
solutions to choose from for the Management for effective achievement of the
Organization’s Goal.
All characters
mentioned are fictional & the piece is inspired from the works of Sh.
DevduttPatnaik.
For a nation, where Sachin is loved like a Greek God, Cricket brings all religions together, and where a billion wishes come true when India wins, this small poem is dedicated to all IPL fans: "Yeh Khel nahi yeh jung hai, Veeron par khilta rang hai,
Yodhaon ki bhumi par, dekh rahe sab dang hai, sab dang hai, sab dang hai!!!
Bin sarhadon ki ladai mein, pradeshon ka prakop hai,
Do dalon ki yeh mahabharat nai,Shoorviron ki yeh jung hai, jung hai, jung hai!!!
Bin bhalon aur talwaron ke, tu marne ko tyaar hai, Tu Dekh har phoonkar ko, apni chonti par buland hai, buland hai, buland hai!!! Kuch palon mein hai haar-jeet, lambi mehnat aur sangarsh hai, Ekkathe hue shoor-viron mein, shatruaon jaisa pratibhimb hai, pratibhimb hai, pratibhimb hai!!!" -Raghav
Today, 5th March 2012, earthqiake with strong intenstity shoook Delhi and NCR Region at around 1:08p.m. Strong ripples were felt in KG Marg, Barakhamba road and my buidling, Hindustan Times started shaking intensily (could figure it out from the lock hanging hitting the latch here).
The earthquake alomost lasted for 10-15seconds.
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The other day while jogging in the park, I saw two mothers with their individual kids (girls) playing around gracefully in presence of a number of playful & simple rides like seesaw (teeter-totter), ladders and revolving benches. They were comparatively young, probably friends living in a close neighborhood.
By the time I completed few rounds I could see them playing hide ‘n’ seek with kids. Later, the ride the kids were more interested in strolling to was the seesaw (teeter-totter) with two small benches pivoted to one another in the middle. Since the kids were really babyish, their mothers’ had to support them at their respective ends to avoid any falls or injuries. One peculiar thing noticed was that rather than making kids sit on the side of their respective moms, they were instead made to sit on opposite sides, with other kid’s mom. One may ask why? But this playful act explains a very simple logic. Each mother, knowing the precarious nature of the ride would want to lower her kid’s position as often as possible to a larger extent no matter to which side of the seesaw the kid is sitting, knowing the kind of control the kid has over the ride. So by making kids sit across, at other’s end, both mothers would want to lower the farther end of the swing (ride) deliberately. Unreservedly, this would raise the other mother’s kid higher alternatively, thereby resulting in more enjoyment for both kids and an equivalently good safety (supreme here when it comes to mothers) for both.
We’ve all heard about the mentality of crabs in an open tin. If any one crab want to get out of it, there’ll be others pulling it down, thereby resulting in nobody’s good. Hence, using the mother’s act example, one understands the logic behind pushing others forward rather than pulling everyone down. Only a selfless push towards growth & prosperity can result in everyone’s good. Here infact, a selfish interest in one’s resources is doing good of the others’ resources. Quite pleasant to hear that!!!
Isn’t this attitude demonstration something that needs to be well incorporated by the managers to let their fledgling brands grow, by the governments to let their population prove productive and by executives to let their corporations grow??
It was a Wednesday. And to be truly called, one of the worst days for my family. It was a prophecy waiting to happen. Mom had been saying it for months now, that watch it, it’s better you take care of it now before you don’t get even a speck of a second to regret!!! Indeed, we all were full with remorse, disgust, and consternation.
Siya, my niece, had a major accident and that too at the safest of all places, at our house. It left us totally dumbfounded and stunned for not paying heed to what my parents wanted all of us to understand. Lesson No.1: Always pay close attention to what elders at your home tell you, their advice coupled with experience is priceless and rewarding.
My niece is now 1 year, 2 months, 13 days old when the incident took place. There is no denying the fact that whatever has to happen will happen for sure, and everything happens for your own good. I, my father, my mother, my bhabhi (my brother’s wife), and my niece, Siya were at home. My mom was washing clothes in the backyard, my father was getting ready to go and pay bills, bhabhi had just gone to washroom, and I was playing with Siya. We were playing in the living room, when she unintentionally threw her meal on the floor and started wandering about in the hall. The flooring in our house is all tiles, so I thought it’ll be wiser to clean the surface before she slips and hurt self. I mobbed the surface and went in the kitchen to dump it in trash without realizing Siya to have gone by then in her room where television was kept and switched on but with bhabhi in washroom. Now, the television here is lying on a wooden trolley/ cart with wheels the bottom, making it highly precarious. My dad was near the exit gate and I was in kitchen when we heard a loud thump from the bedroom. In a flash, me and my father started running towards the room realizing it would be something with Siya, and to our utter astonishment, she was there weeping, compressed under the television on the floor. I was horrified, and my dad, quickly realizing that Siya wasn’t visible from his end, picked up the television and threw it away. I gathered all my courage and sided it further to create room for him to grab Siya and pick her up into his arms. She cried incessantly, and on hearing the loud thump, my mom rushed in, and so did my bhabhi.
Dad was furious on my carelessness, but we all were utterly shocked to see her not only crying, but her both nostrils bleeding. Except my father, nobody could keep a hold on emotions and started crying on seeing her in such a dilapidated state. My father rushed, started the car, asked bhabhi to come along to the kids’ hospital. I too couldn’t resist it and decided to go along.
Reaching at the hospital, Siya was taken care of by the diagnosis of the doctor. He observed her for long and told her that she needs to be given medicine and blood from nostrils is a good sign in such cases. He told us the following symptoms for internal injuries (kindly take note of these):
If there’s a mixture of blood and water oozing out of ears of a kid
If the child is losing consciousness again and again
If there’s vomiting
If some part(s) of the body is(are) going into an inactive state
On comprehending, we soon realized that our little angel was out of danger. But there were numerous lessons learnt from the whole episode. A golden tip: follow them in your life, and lead a life full of happiness and joy.
Lesson No.2: Post marriage, it is always wiser to live with your parents, then be a nuclear family. Kids grow effortlessly and they get all the wisdom, learning and teaching from the most experienced individuals in the family.
Lesson No.3: When your kid is above 7months and less than 2.5 years old, pay him/her all the attention. For this would not only help the child to express self, but also will take care of his/her surroundings.
Lesson No.4: Buy a tiled floor house only when you have a family of all grown ups or still have a long time to go for family planning.
Lesson No.5: Never keep anything heavy on a moving trolley/cart, for there’s always some probability of disaster waiting to happen.
Lesson No. 6: And the most important one, LOVE your children, they are the only angels living in this earthly world.
